com.predictionmarketspicks/weather

Est-ce que com.predictionmarketspicks/weather est sûr ?

Au dernier audit MCP Hub, le serveur MCP « com.predictionmarketspicks/weather » est classé « Non encore testé ». Référencé dans l'annuaire. Seul le pentest comportemental fait foi, et il n'a pas encore été exécuté sur ce serveur. Le verdict est réévalué en continu ; consultez la fiche pour l'état à jour.

Méthode : MCP Hub analyse la description de chaque outil (couche 1) et, pour le verdict fort, exécute le serveur dans une micro-VM isolée avec leurres et réseau bloqué (couche 2). On publie des noms et des compteurs, jamais le contenu brut renvoyé par un outil.

Les 7 outils

• base_rate_gap≈ 434 tokens

  Use for "how does this price compare to history" and "is the market ignoring the base rate". Compares a market price with the historical base rate for a class of events: the gap in pp, a signal, and sample-size quality. Pass a known baseRateId (the parameter lists them) or your own baseRateValue.

  Paramètres, retour & exemple (3)

  Paramètres

  • baseRateId · ? · optionnel
    Known base-rate id to look up (includes sample size + source). One of: incumbent_reelected · fed_hold_unemp_below_4 · fed_cut_cpi_above_3 · recession_called_12mo · sp500_positive_year · bitcoin_above_100k_eoy · gdp_growth_above_2 · cpi_above_3 · senate_incumbent_wins_primary · vix_below_20_eoy · interest_rate_cut_next_meeting · major_sports_upset.
  • marketPrice · number|string · optionnel
    Current market price in cents / implied probability % (0–100). Needed for a real answer. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.
  • baseRateValue · number · optionnel
    Your own base rate in % (0–100), used when no baseRateId is given.

  Exemple d'appel

  {"name": "base_rate_gap", "arguments": {"baseRateId": "texte", "marketPrice": 1, "baseRateValue": 1}}

  Exemple de retour

  {"content": [{"type": "text", "text": "…"}]}

• bayes_update≈ 449 tokens

  Update a prior probability with one or more pieces of evidence using Bayes theorem. Given a prior and a list of evidence items (each with P(evidence | true) and P(evidence | false)), returns the posterior probability and the per-step chain. Use for "update my estimate with new information", "posterior probability", "how does this news change the odds".

  Paramètres, retour & exemple (2)

  Paramètres

  • prior · number|string · optionnel
    Prior probability the hypothesis is true, in % (0–100). Needed for a real answer. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.
  • evidence · array · optionnel
    One or more evidence items, applied in order. Each item needs likelihoodIfTrue and likelihoodIfFalse on the 0–100 scale, e.g. [{ "likelihoodIfTrue": 80, "likelihoodIfFalse": 20 }].

  Exemple d'appel

  {"name": "bayes_update", "arguments": {"prior": 1, "evidence": []}}

  Exemple de retour

  {"content": [{"type": "text", "text": "…"}]}

• calculate_ev≈ 434 tokens

  Use for "is this contract mispriced" and "what is my edge". Give a Kalshi or Polymarket price in cents and your own probability; returns the % expected-value edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read.

  Paramètres, retour & exemple (2)

  Paramètres

  • marketPrice · number|string · optionnel
    Current contract price in cents (1–99), equal to the implied probability in %. Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.
  • yourProbability · number|string · optionnel
    Your own estimate of the true probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.

  Exemple d'appel

  {"name": "calculate_ev", "arguments": {"marketPrice": 1, "yourProbability": 1}}

  Exemple de retour

  {"content": [{"type": "text", "text": "…"}], "structuredContent": {"signal": "texte", "edge_pp": "texte", "sources": "texte", "edge_pct": "texte", "tell_user": "texte", "timestamp": "texte", "needs_input": "texte", "example_call": "texte", "data_freshness": "texte", "interpretation": "texte", "market_price_cents": "texte", "your_probability_pct": "texte"}}

• convert_probability≈ 395 tokens

  Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to American odds", "decimal to implied odds".

  Paramètres, retour & exemple (2)

  Paramètres

  • value · number|string · optionnel
    The numeric value to convert. Needed for a real answer, with format. Accepts a number or a numeric string ("+150", "62%", "2.5").
  • format · ? · optionnel
    Format of `value`: probability (0–100 %), american (e.g. -200 / +150), or decimal (e.g. 2.5). One of: probability · american · decimal.

  Exemple d'appel

  {"name": "convert_probability", "arguments": {"value": 1, "format": "texte"}}

  Exemple de retour

  {"content": [{"type": "text", "text": "…"}], "structuredContent": {"sources": "texte", "tell_user": "texte", "timestamp": "texte", "needs_input": "texte", "decimal_odds": "texte", "example_call": "texte", "american_odds": "texte", "data_freshness": "texte", "probability_pct": "texte"}}

• edge_alerts≈ 339 tokens

  Use for "any edge on Kalshi" and "weather trade signals". Our model alerts on Kalshi — weather, bitcoin/silver/gold/oil, mispricings — with feed, tier, side, price, model probability, edge and link. Real time with Pro; free is delayed 24h without the thesis. One identical, impersonal feed for every subscriber; filters only select. Informational, not investment advice.

  Paramètres, retour & exemple (4)

  Paramètres

  • feed · string · optionnel
    Comma-separated feeds to include: weather, bitcoin, silver, gold, oil, mispricing, sports_arb, nfl. Omit for all.
  • limit · number|string|null · optionnel
    Max alerts to return (default 25). Values above 100 are clamped to 100.
  • since · string · optionnel
    ISO-8601 timestamp — only alerts created after it.
  • min_tier · ? · optionnel
    Minimum confidence tier (returns that tier and above). One of: SPECULATIVE · MODERATE · STRONG.

  Exemple d'appel

  {"name": "edge_alerts", "arguments": {"feed": "texte", "limit": 1, "since": "texte", "min_tier": "texte"}}

  Exemple de retour

  {"content": [{"type": "text", "text": "…"}]}

• kelly_size≈ 568 tokens

  Compute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar stake and a risk rating. Use for "how much should I stake", "what is my position size", "Kelly sizing for this trade".

  Paramètres, retour & exemple (4)

  Paramètres

  • bankroll · number|string · optionnel
    Total bankroll in dollars (e.g. 1000). Optional — omit it and the result is the % of bankroll to stake, without a dollar figure. Accepts a number or a numeric string ("1000", "$1,000").
  • fraction · ? · optionnel
    Kelly fraction to apply. Half-Kelly is the common sharp-money default. One of: full · half · quarter · eighth.
  • marketPrice · number|string · requis
    Contract price in cents (1–99). Sets the payout ratio. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.
  • winProbability · number|string · requis
    Your probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.

  Exemple d'appel

  {"name": "kelly_size", "arguments": {"marketPrice": 1, "winProbability": 1}}

  Exemple de retour

  {"content": [{"type": "text", "text": "…"}], "structuredContent": {"rating": "texte", "sources": "texte", "tell_user": "texte", "timestamp": "texte", "needs_input": "texte", "example_call": "texte", "stake_dollars": "texte", "data_freshness": "texte", "full_kelly_pct": "texte", "applied_fraction_pct": "texte"}}

• weather_board≈ 382 tokens

  Use for "Kalshi NYC high temperature odds". Every open Kalshi daily-high strike in 13 cities: YES price, settlement station and source, the strict-comparison rule, close time, and the NWS forecast high beside it. Pass city ("nyc", "KXHIGHCHI"). Market data only.

  Paramètres, retour & exemple (2)

  Paramètres

  • day · ? · optionnel
    today · tomorrow · all (default).
  • city · string · optionnel
    City name or series ("nyc", "KXHIGHTBOS"). Omit for all.

  Exemple d'appel

  {"name": "weather_board", "arguments": {"day": "texte", "city": "texte"}}

  Exemple de retour

  {"content": [{"type": "text", "text": "…"}], "structuredContent": {"rule": "texte", "as_of": "texte", "cities": "texte", "sources": "texte", "tell_user": "texte", "timestamp": "texte", "needs_input": "texte", "example_call": "texte", "data_freshness": "texte"}}

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Source

https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry